Washington Post/ABC poll: Obama 49% Romney 46%

A new Washington Post/ABC survey shows Barack Obama leading among likely voters, 49%-46%.

But lest you think the race has returned to pre-debate levels (which some people on Twitter are already trumpeting), keep in mind a couple things.

1. The sample is +9% Democratic. In other words, the poll predicts that 34% of the electorate will be Democratic and 25% will be Republicans.

I understand that these polls use self-identification, but a 9% turnout advantage is completely unrealistic. In 2008, Democrats had just a 7% turnout advantage and that was in the midst of a historic year for Democratic enthusiasm and abysmal GOP enthusiasm.

Rick Klein notes that strong enthusiasm for the GOP ticket is twice what it was for McCain in 2008. It's hard to see how that translates to an even bigger Democratic turnout edge, which is what this poll predicts.

2. Take this poll in the context of other, national polls showing Romney with a small lead.

2. Even though the overall results have to be looked at the prism of what seems to be unrealistic turnout numbers, it's still helpful to notes what particular groups are saying.

For example, look at what self-identified Republicans, Democrats, and independents are saying. That's still useful, because

So here's what's going on -- Romney is still in pretty good shape when you look at individual groups, and particularly, what independents are saying.

a. Independents prefer Romney, 48%-42%.

b. Independents disapprove of the job Obama is doing 46%/50%. That suggest the president will have difficulty hitting 50% with indies on election day, but thanks to Democrats' superior registration, a number of about 46% might be enough.

c. Independents disapprove of the job Obama is doing on the economy, 42%/55%, and they prefer Romney on the economy, 45%-41%.

d. Indies do prefer Obama on international affairs, 48%-39%.

e. Here's a good number for Obama and indicative of something I've been writing about, as of late -- Obama leads Romney on taxes among independents, 47%-38%. That's a big number. Obama has taken away one of the most natural advantages for a Republican candidate, and the same group that actually supports Romney, overall, and on the economy (indies) would rather have Obama on taxes.

f. Indies favor Romney on the budget deficit, 45%-41%. His lead is usually larger, so while this is just one poll showing a closer race on that, it's still notable.

g. Obama leads on health care policy among independents, 45%-43%.

h. Indies still say Obama is more likable than Romney, 55%-30%, but they like Romney's view of the size and role of government better than Obama's, 51%-37%.

OVERALL: It's a little perilous to read too much into the overall number, thanks to a sample that likely overstates Obama's support, but it's helpful to take a look at how each target demos are doing.

And it's clear that -- on both preference and key issues like the economy and deficit -- Romney is still scoring better with independents, while both candidates still find huge support with their parties.

Source: http://gop12.thehill.com/2012/10/washington-postabc-poll-obama-49-romney.html

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